I thought the same thing until Cujo did that poll on EL back when things were bad to measure how many planned to jump ship to another regional.
The overwhelming majority indicated they planned to stay at Envoy (at least 70+%) unless a legacy or decent LCC offered them a class. Let's face it, no captains will leave to start over at another regional and most will leave for a legacy or LCC. Same with most senior F/O's as to they are making more now then even starting over at Endeavor at $50K/year. Mid seniority F/O's have 4-6 years there and even for them, it's unlikely they will throw in the towel believing if they stay long enough they'll upgrade faster then starting over elsewhere. The junior guys were probably the majority of the 25-50% who said they'd bail on that poll if things looked too bleak. Now, the claim by some is that EL isn't the majority of the pilot sentiment, but from my experience, it is as good a litmus as there is. People are apt top speak more honestly in anonymous polls.

My informal interaction agrees with you in that the 824 are far too committed to go anywhere but AA or another legacy. Many are realistically too old for anyone but AA via the flow anyway. More junior captains would only take too much of a pay hit to go anywhere but an LCC or legacy and yes, I think many have apps in at Jet Blue, Spirit, Frontier, etc. Same with most F/O's. Another regional if the flow was diluted ?

For the overwhelming majority, no

My point is that they will not "screw with the flow" to screw Envoy pilots per se, but it will be a by-product of that necessary to ENSURE stability in the future. Once the 824 are gone, Envoy STILL has a pilot cost issue with several hundred senior lifers on 18-year scale that they have no intention of paying $100-120,000/year to fly RJ's, especially because they won't have to and Parker won't leave money on the table needlessly. The same goes for any excessively paid captains at PSA and Piedmont. This too will be corrected as part of a more comprehensive streamlining. I'd expect once the 824 are swept out along with several other present variables at AA no longer variable like the SLI, PBS and combination of divisions, AAG will then have the best situation to streamline both AA and the Eagle feed system, both WO and non-WO. For non-WO's, that just may mean elimination or possible consolidation. Remember, that mergers & acquisitions are a natural process in this business and PSA and/or Piedmont could easily become Envoy's size virtually overnight with the merger or acquisition of another non-WO who would then be on the rocks future-wise with AAG without such agreement.

You may be confident the future landscape out your front window tells the story of Envoy, but that just might be right up until the time you get broad-sided by something you failed to see out of the side with your peripheral vision and I think it's a mistake to assume you've got Envoy's future pegged by what you THINK you see now. In the worst case scenario for Envoy, I'd only expect DILUTION of the flow, not elimination. Dilution in that it will be balanced out to ensure stability and Envoy pilots will simply HAVE to play ball and Envoy ALPA WILL play ball. If a few hundred Envoy pilots bail to another regional because of that, so be it, but I don't think that will happen in any great numbers.

Let's face another sobering reality while we're at it; When have Envoy pilots as a group (or their Association) ever forced their way upon a previous management there ?

I can't remember it, myself. There will be no mutiny, death spiral or ominous ultimatums by ALPA Envoy or significant alterations by choices made by a minority of Envoy pilots. Parker will unveil his plan and most will accept. There may be a lot of heartburn and a few dented garbage cans in the crew rooms, but that's about it.

 

I just accidentally deleted my entire response, so I'll try again.

The poll indicated that most would not make a lateral move - they will wait for the "right" LCC or legacy. This is my point - The largest hiring wave of the century is just starting, and the wave will be continuing for at least a decade. The LCCs and legacies will be hiring like gangbusters. Pilots at ENY will not HAVE to make a lateral move if the flow is tampered with in any way.

Flow is ENY's only recruiting tactic right now. You and I both know the pay is average, the QOL is in the tank, upgrade is currently long, and rsv times will range at least a year or two until they clear out the clog. If flow is tampered with, the recruiting tactic is gone. There is no other reason for anyone to come - new hires will be gone, folks at the very bottom of the seniority list will bail, and those who were thinking about applying elsewhere but really haven't because of the flow, those apps will be out in a hot second.

My argument is that the flow NATURALLY evens itself out after the protected pilots. They can continue paring ENY down as they flow guys out. Once the protected group is gone, all three WO'd will be right sized with similar flows and similar contracts. AAG doesn't have to do anything.

It just seems that our views on the regional landscape are very different. You think mgmt will be free to push whatever demands on the WO's that they want, and they will take it. You may be right, you may be wrong. I am saying that it's folly to do so, because the landscape across the industry is vastly different than it was even two years ago - folks won't be stuck at regionals any more. And for ENY, where flow is currently the ONLY thing going for current pilots and recruits? Dilute it, modify it, or do to it whatever you want to call it, and folks will respond with their feet. That's all.

*Quote pared down by me to spare smart phone users

 

I agree, but non-lateral attrition a constant in that it will occur regardless of Envoy's flow. The future flow rate for most of these pilots will not alter their conduct, since a lateral move to another regional isn't in play. Thus, if the flow is diluted to a slower rate for Envoy pilots in the future to allow the inclusion of pilots from the other WO's at an approximately equal rate (provided they are of approximately equal size), it wont change the Envoy pilot retention equation much. Although increased hiring at both legacies and LCC's is projected for the forseeable future, both can still be very choosy as legacies have 10-15,000 apps on file (mostly the same pilots) and LCC's don't hire in large enough numbers due to their smaller size and lower attrition because of younger age metrics associated with retirements.

I like your use of the word "tactic" when describing what Envoy (and others) are doing to draw in pilots from an EXTREMELY small available pool. The 2.5/6 claim is exactly that, a tactic. The fact that it is rationally unsupportable in the case of the 2.5 year upgrade claim and excessively assumptive in the case of anything 6 years down the road only seems to support something designed to meet a temporary need, in this case the desire of Envoy management to remain viable by proving they have the best access to a desirable resource. Regional attrition is somewhat modest now, but soon that will increase and the pool in the future will be only smaller. It's just I think your assumptions here (if I understand you correctly) as that enough regional pilots will be able to move elsewhere to legacies and LCC's to not have to temper the flow. To me that is illogical because if that occurs at Envoy, Envoy has to hire that many more pilots to maintain the engine speed of upgrades and eventually flow and according to you, for upwards of 6 years and because it will have engineered a VERY hungry engine that must be fed a huge amount fuel (in this case, new-hire pilots that don't exist in the numbers necessary), it invariably won't be able to feed that engine at that power setting without running out of fuel or blowing apart like RAH. This desired engine speed of 2.5/6 simply isn't sustainable and so Envoy simply will HAVE to back off the attrition, ESPECIALLY if as you believe, outside attrition will spike in the absence of keep the Envoy engine running at this rate.

Sounds like a classic Catch-22 to me.

Envoy likely won't have to reduce power, they will be overhauled either with a smaller engine or only be tasked with providing one power source to a multi-engine platform and multi-engine platforms usually don't work well with asymmetrical or imbalanced power settings. I think Envoy will gradually contract over the next 12-18 months and PSA and Piedmont are likely to grow. If one or both of those carriers merge or acquire a non WO (who might have no other choice if AAG has the drop on them) or consolidation of the WO's occurs, look for the balancing I describe and that's 12-24 months, not more then 6 years from now. The process will also involve as I stated MORE emphasis on steady flow to AA (even 50-65% of classes), but spread out over far more pilots at multiple WO's. Unfortunately, the result for Envoy pilots is a slower result then is now claimed. Whether or not X number of pilots goes elsewhere or how fast or soon is irrelevant as most of those that do go elsewhere (non-laterally) would have done so regardless.

 

Quickly - my point wasn't that the outward movement of pilots will allow ENY to temper the flow. It is my point that if ENY DOES temper the flow or modify it in any way, the exodus will pick up dramatically (due to the drastic increase of available jobs over the next few years), and will no longer be the relative constant it is now. Then the airline will be hemorrhaging pilots from the inside, and will not have any new hires to speak of. It will be a double edged sword for AAG, and this is because they put all their eggs in the flow basket. Hopefully that clears up what I am trying to say.

 

OK, I get your drift. But IMO, it won't happen in "the next few years" when hiring picks up, but much sooner, like later 2016 to mid 2017. Additionally, there will be little warning, so once the initial shock wears off, if legacies and LCC's are not in mass Envoy pilot acquisition mode, where will these pilots bail to ?

Laterally to another regional ?

It's just my opinion that there's a reason why AAG plays their cards close, but in this case there ARE clues. Want a BIG clue ?

How about the fact AAG is spoon feeding flying to Envoy on a quarterly basis as opposed to previously done annually ? Another would be the desire for a satellite domicile in Miami as opposed to a regular one. Changes are coming once the variables are cleaned up (the 824 being one of them) and personally, I don't believe most Envoy pilots will bail Envoy once those changes are announced, at least not to another regional and the Legacies and LCC's will still be choosey in 12-18 months meaning there won't be many options anyway.

It's OK that we disagree.