Originally Posted by
Jersdawg
Quickly - my point wasn't that the outward movement of pilots will allow ENY to temper the flow. It is my point that if ENY DOES temper the flow or modify it in any way, the exodus will pick up dramatically (due to the drastic increase of available jobs over the next few years), and will no longer be the relative constant it is now. Then the airline will be hemorrhaging pilots from the inside, and will not have any new hires to speak of. It will be a double edged sword for AAG, and this is because they put all their eggs in the flow basket. Hopefully that clears up what I am trying to say.
OK, I get your drift. But IMO, it won't happen in "the next few years" when hiring picks up, but much sooner, like later 2016 to mid 2017. Additionally, there will be little warning, so once the initial shock wears off, if legacies and LCC's are not in mass Envoy pilot acquisition mode, where will these pilots bail to ?
Laterally to another regional ?
It's just my opinion that there's a reason why AAG plays their cards close, but in this case there ARE clues. Want a BIG clue ?
How about the fact AAG is spoon feeding flying to Envoy on a quarterly basis as opposed to previously done annually ? Another would be the desire for a satellite domicile in Miami as opposed to a regular one. Changes are coming once the variables are cleaned up (the 824 being one of them) and personally, I don't believe most Envoy pilots will bail Envoy once those changes are announced, at least not to another regional and the Legacies and LCC's will still be choosey in 12-18 months meaning there won't be many options anyway.
It's OK that we disagree.