Then Envoy is doomed. If that is the plan all along, fine. But if not, IMO, the protected pilots will all go as planned. Afterwards the flow begins to flatten out. Then the three wholly owned will be on close to equal footing. This will take four to five years.

If they cannot find enough recruits, something will be done. This is not a Comair situation, regardless of what Glass said three years ago. AAG has billions to play with. Destroying one of their wholly owned will cost mucho dinero, much more costly than throwing a little extra into a recruitment tactic. Shareholders may not look kindly upon it, either.

If Envoy is to remain a viable regional, AAG cannot alter the flow in a negative fashion. It is the end of Envoy if they decide to do otherwise.

 

Why ?

If the flow slows to say 15/month, the overwhelming majority of Envoy pilots won't leave to anyplace they wouldn't if the flow remained the same. Virtually all captains and most of the F/O's are too committed to Envoy to leave for another regional and they would go anyway to another legacy or most LLC's. A recent poll on EL proved that regardless of what happens at Envoy, most will do nothing but complain and kick garbage cans around the crew room under those circumstances.

The only real way to stabilize AA feed is to have equal carriers with equal benefits and that includes flow. Actually, in the short term it wouldn't be surprising that some Envoy pilots (especially newbies) will likely consider a lateral move to Endeavor to start at $50,000/year and actially hold a hard schedule in a year.

Let's face it, none of the AAG WO's can touch that and not even the pie-in-the-sky suggestion of an AA job in 60% of a decade can either.

 

So to be clear, now you are admitting that the flow is working better than advertised but that is still an indication of something bad. Yeah, your not biased at all buddy.

And then you promote Endeavor's Compensation model, half of which is not even contractual (The $23,000 annual bonus is a side letter) and can be cancelled at any time. Depending on one's priorities, the flow may not be as an attractive incentive and Endeavor's annual bonus, but at least it's a contractually binding provision.

AA is flowing faster than required and that is still a bad thing. The Reverend eaglefly is here just to give us a neutral unbiased opinion on matters.

 

And me getting a blowie from Heidi Klum is POSSIBLE

 

Nope, you're not clear and never have been. I've never claimed the flow isn't working, I've said it is working now FOR A REASON and that's to finish up an arbitration award so it is no longer applicable and concurrently trim some overpaid captains out of Envoy. There's a difference between working now for a purpose and a guaranteed plan in perpetuity. The protected pilot agreement can easily be modified and is not part of the Bill of Rights for Envoy pilots, but keep clinging to that fantasy if it gets you through the night.

BTW, I can only Laugh at you and your SOS buddies new strategy of shout-down using huge pictures in the hope of blinding out other posts like billboards on a freeway. Obviously, you're running out of attack ammo and instead of refuting my points, it's just a new form of mud, but hey, I like a good show as much as a good laugh, so please at least keep them funny, ok ?

Those bi-weekly PM/email/phone calls with your sales team, must be sounding quite desperate.

 

Here's some though about why they can keep flowing the protected pilots at faster rate tha PSA and PDT guys.

Because most of the protected pilots are 5-8 yr FOs, if we upgrade we get more expensive than a PSA/PDT 2-3yr CA, flying a 50 seater.

They have to get us out of the door so they can have cheaper feed. It's as simple as that. By the time a protected pilot flow it will be at year 10-12 at envoy (in a perfect escenario). Then the flow start being reduced gradually to match PSA/PDT.

 

I think we have some agreement here. However, IMO, AAG will want to balance the situation out much sooner then any PP will benefit a new-hire of today at Envoy more so then that of PSA/PDT. Will any reduction in flow occur immediately after the last 824 is gone with no senior PP pilot flowing at the present.......er....the projected/suggested rate ?

No one can pinpoint that. That's like pinpointing an Envoy new-hire of today WILL flow in 6 years or less.

If AAG (once again) tells Envoy ALPA and pilots the "world has changed" and that the new paradigm for the AA WO feed system pilot-wise WILL be uniform in cost and benefit (which they'll almost certainly model the most company advantageous CBA after) and either Envoy pilots choose to participate or be pushed aside, Envoy ALPA will ensure participation. The contracts will be identical and the flow approximately equal and in that fashion using the same litmus you are saying exists today at Envoy will not only exist at all 3 equally, but remain stable in that ideal going forward.

Otherwise, the 3-legged regional stool becomes unstable and then they have to expend time, money and effort using temporary patchwork solutions and robbing peter to pay paul just like they are using Envoy now. That's not a good business plan going forward. What's occurring now with Envoy is just to ensure they can handle the temporary overflow the others cannot handle. That will balance out and long before any Envoy new-hire of today could expect to benefit or plan on flowing in 6 years based on whatever present or near future Envoy flow rate might be occurring.

 

I think you're underestimating the number of pilots who will leave if they start screwing with the flow. The numbers are there, and everyone knows what they are supposed to be. If it becomes apparent that Envoy is being jerked around (again), there is no shortage of hiring elsewhere right now, and it's not only going to increase over the next few years.

In my own informal observation, most 824 do not have apps out. About half of the protected captains I talk to DO have their apps out. Most FOs have their apps out elsewhere as well. For those who don't, it won't take long to bring them up to speed if it becomes apparent that the pie in the sky predictions are going to be bull.

My point is that AAG WILL have stabilized regional feed. Envoy is going to have a leg up on flow numbers (but not flow time) for the next few years. And then all three will be nearly equal after the protected pilots are gone.

If it is destablized feed they want, they will screw with the flow again before then. Pilots will bail and no one will come here and the death spiral won't be stopped.

 

This here is serious rational thought on Envoy. If you are on the fence about going to Envoy, this guy sums things up nicely.

 

Envoy just flowed 118 pilots to AA in December.