Originally Posted by
eaglefly
Why ?
If the flow slows to say 15/month, the overwhelming majority of Envoy pilots won't leave to anyplace they wouldn't if the flow remained the same. Virtually all captains and most of the F/O's are too committed to Envoy to leave for another regional and they would go anyway to another legacy or most LLC's. A recent poll on EL proved that regardless of what happens at Envoy, most will do nothing but complain and kick garbage cans around the crew room under those circumstances.
The only real way to stabilize AA feed is to have equal carriers with equal benefits and that includes flow. Actually, in the short term it wouldn't be surprising that some Envoy pilots (especially newbies) will likely consider a lateral move to Endeavor to start at $50,000/year and actially hold a hard schedule in a year.
Let's face it, none of the AAG WO's can touch that and not even the pie-in-the-sky suggestion of an AA job in 60% of a decade can either.
I think you're underestimating the number of pilots who will leave if they start screwing with the flow. The numbers are there, and everyone knows what they are supposed to be. If it becomes apparent that Envoy is being jerked around (again), there is no shortage of hiring elsewhere right now, and it's not only going to increase over the next few years.
In my own informal observation, most 824 do not have apps out. About half of the protected captains I talk to DO have their apps out. Most FOs have their apps out elsewhere as well. For those who don't, it won't take long to bring them up to speed if it becomes apparent that the pie in the sky predictions are going to be bull.
My point is that AAG WILL have stabilized regional feed. Envoy is going to have a leg up on flow numbers (but not flow time) for the next few years. And then all three will be nearly equal after the protected pilots are gone.
If it is destablized feed they want, they will screw with the flow again before then. Pilots will bail and no one will come here and the death spiral won't be stopped.