Originally Posted by
Jersdawg
I think you're underestimating the number of pilots who will leave if they start screwing with the flow. The numbers are there, and everyone knows what they are supposed to be. If it becomes apparent that Envoy is being jerked around (again), there is no shortage of hiring elsewhere right now, and it's not only going to increase over the next few years.
I thought the same thing until Cujo did that poll on EL back when things were bad to measure how many planned to jump ship to another regional.
The overwhelming majority indicated they planned to stay at Envoy (at least 70+%) unless a legacy or decent LCC offered them a class. Let's face it, no captains will leave to start over at another regional and most will leave for a legacy or LCC. Same with most senior F/O's as to they are making more now then even starting over at Endeavor at $50K/year. Mid seniority F/O's have 4-6 years there and even for them, it's unlikely they will throw in the towel believing if they stay long enough they'll upgrade faster then starting over elsewhere. The junior guys were probably the majority of the 25-50% who said they'd bail on that poll if things looked too bleak. Now, the claim by some is that EL isn't the majority of the pilot sentiment, but from my experience, it is as good a litmus as there is. People are apt top speak more honestly in anonymous polls.
Originally Posted by
Jersdawg
In my own informal observation, most 824 do not have apps out. About half of the protected captains I talk to DO have their apps out. Most FOs have their apps out elsewhere as well. For those who don't, it won't take long to bring them up to speed if it becomes apparent that the pie in the sky predictions are going to be bull.
My informal interaction agrees with you in that the 824 are far too committed to go anywhere but AA or another legacy. Many are realistically too old for anyone but AA via the flow anyway. More junior captains would only take too much of a pay hit to go anywhere but an LCC or legacy and yes, I think many have apps in at Jet Blue, Spirit, Frontier, etc. Same with most F/O's. Another regional if the flow was diluted ?
For the overwhelming majority, no
Originally Posted by
Jersdawg
My point is that AAG WILL have stabilized regional feed. Envoy is going to have a leg up on flow numbers (but not flow time) for the next few years. And then all three will be nearly equal after the protected pilots are gone.
If it is destablized feed they want, they will screw with the flow again before then. Pilots will bail and no one will come here and the death spiral won't be stopped.
My point is that they will not "screw with the flow" to screw Envoy pilots per se, but it will be a by-product of that necessary to ENSURE stability in the future. Once the 824 are gone, Envoy STILL has a pilot cost issue with several hundred senior lifers on 18-year scale that they have no intention of paying $100-120,000/year to fly RJ's, especially because they won't have to and Parker won't leave money on the table needlessly. The same goes for any excessively paid captains at PSA and Piedmont. This too will be corrected as part of a more comprehensive streamlining. I'd expect once the 824 are swept out along with several other present variables at AA no longer variable like the SLI, PBS and combination of divisions, AAG will then have the best situation to streamline both AA and the Eagle feed system, both WO and non-WO. For non-WO's, that just may mean elimination or possible consolidation. Remember, that mergers & acquisitions are a natural process in this business and PSA and/or Piedmont could easily become Envoy's size virtually overnight with the merger or acquisition of another non-WO who would then be on the rocks future-wise with AAG without such agreement.
You may be confident the future landscape out your front window tells the story of Envoy, but that just might be right up until the time you get broad-sided by something you failed to see out of the side with your peripheral vision and I think it's a mistake to assume you've got Envoy's future pegged by what you THINK you see now. In the worst case scenario for Envoy, I'd only expect DILUTION of the flow, not elimination. Dilution in that it will be balanced out to ensure stability and Envoy pilots will simply HAVE to play ball and Envoy ALPA WILL play ball. If a few hundred Envoy pilots bail to another regional because of that, so be it, but I don't think that will happen in any great numbers.
Let's face another sobering reality while we're at it; When have Envoy pilots as a group (or their Association) ever forced their way upon a previous management there ?
I can't remember it, myself. There will be no mutiny, death spiral or ominous ultimatums by ALPA Envoy or significant alterations by choices made by a minority of Envoy pilots. Parker will unveil his plan and most will accept. There may be a lot of heartburn and a few dented garbage cans in the crew rooms, but that's about it.