Does anyone actually believe that it will take 15 years to get to a major? I would seriously nope not. That would defy all logic and make anything that you post suspect.

At PSA, however, it is actually a pretty comfortable life. Once the critical pay situation is solved, it will be even better. Sure, scheduling sucks, and the company needs to fix the payroll issues. Those things will happen as soon as the union stands up and takes action. Right now, however, they are not doing it.

I am still trying to figure out why people hate PSA's contract. The only thing that I can figure is that they have no idea what the contract says. The contract made huge quality of life improvements, much better than other regionals. The only thing that could be considered a concession is the 12/4. On the other hand, however, there will be no pilot that will hit the 12/4 unless they choose not to upgrade or choose not to flow. Either way, they are choosing to get stuck in the 12/4.

To me, the biggest QOL item that exists is scheduling flexibility. PSA allows you to drop/add/swap ANY trip on your schedule once you are a line holder with the SAP. Imagine being a first year FO and being able to hold a line and get a week off for Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years. For new hire FO's, depending on base, that could be as soon as 2 months of line flying. With the CRJ900's starting to come in on a regular schedule again (we received 2 in the week before Christmas), and this will continue as long as the company is able to keep new hire classes full.

PSA's flow is "predicted" to be slower than the other WO'd, but that is because we are growing. That just makes sense. Envoy is shrinking, and that is a painful process (as is evident by the long times on reserve and slow upgrades). I have no idea what is happening at PDT, as it makes absolutely no sense to me. They are replacing outdated turboprops with outdated 50 seat airplanes, and are taking the airplanes from another carrier that is successfully operating them and has enough pilots. PSA taking the 700's from Envoy makes some sense, as it will save an estimated $32 million a year in training and maintenance once they are all transferred.

In the end, there is no "predicting" in the airline industry, especially right now. The landscape is changing and "predictions" are all based on outdated information. You simply can not look at the past to predict the future right now. There is no comparable history to look at. The airline industry worldwide is growing at a breakneck pace, and there are simply not enough pilots. Bombardier is predicting that they are going to sell 1200 CRJ900's in the next 15 years to the Asian markets. Thats right. 1200 CRJ900's!

In the US, look what has already happened to the regional industry in the last 18 months. Endeavor went from having a mass exodus of pilots to being one of the "go to" airlines with ever increasing pay scales. Not to be outdone, Republic did the same. Now, almost every regional is offering hiring bonuses, and they are in competition with each other to grab as many pilots as they can.

The problem with Republic, however, is that their stock price has not recovered. They went from $15/share to $4/share. If they were a healthy company, why would this be? Investors would be grabbing every share that they can at $4.

Here is my guess (and that is all that it is, a guess). Republic will continue to fail, and they will not be able to afford their current contract with labor. Their 175 flying will be sent to Envoy. PDT will pick up some of their 145 flying. PSA will take Envoy's 700's (making it a strictly CRJ carrier), and may get a few more 900's, but not too many outside of what is already being delivered in 2016. Envoy will not shrink as much as people are currently predicting and will still be a fairly large airline. AirWisconsin is a wild card right now. They MAY get a contract extension, or AAG may have some sort of "transfer of pilots" to one of their WO carriers that give AWAC pilots some sort of incentive to come to a WO. I don't know what that will be, but maybe a separate seniority list and a flow of some sort or some sort of base guarantee and money...I just can't even guess at this point. MESA has some labor issues right now as well, and if they are not settled, some of their 900 flying and 175 flying could be outsourced to SkyWest, Envoy, and PSA. Once the WO regionals can no longer staff their flying, some of the 900's or 175's will start to move to mainline. There already is a flow, why not flow the pilots and airplanes? Mainline already has a pay scale for the airplanes. Move them over, increase the number of seats on them, and fly the same routes.


At the end of the day, all of the WO'd carriers will be a decent place to be, and will have similar flows/upgrade times when things stabilize in a few years. Right now, PSA pilots upgrade the fastest and Envoy the slowest. Conversely, Envoy has the most pilots flowing, but the slowest upgrade. Personally, as a new hire, I wanted to upgrade quickly so I can make more money and be more attractive to outside hiring. That is why I chose PSA. With no prior 121 time, you can be a line holder at PSA in a few months with schedule flexibility, and then upgrade as soon as you have 1000 hours and are ready.