Originally Posted by
BATOL
This is really good and valid data. Thanks for parsing that out!
I'm an 07 hire and am upgrading. 105 FO's account for SIX YEARS WORTH OF SENIORITY!!! That's only about three vacancies worth! I'm not making any predictions but it just confirms that saying our upgrade time is 8 years is incongruous. Hiring and attrition have not been linear in the least. Far from it. A better data point would be the percentile of the most junior captain and the rate at which someone in that range improves percentile rank.
I'm also not sure if the upgrades from 15-06 that haven't gone through upgrade are all incorporated in that seniority list as CA or FO. There may be less FO's in reality.