I understand most of that, and thank you Sir for summarizing it so well. I am trying to explain that to a friend, but I could not have done it nearly as succinctly, so I shall simply copy/paste your explanation.
I also understand there is no flow to DL, per se, as said after your post, but I think what you meant is that people ARE moving to Delta. They will also be moving to AA & UA with retirements happening. Point is, stagnation should not be an issue going forward as it has for many years.
Originally Posted by
404yxl
Trying to figure out your potential upgrade has nothing to do with the length of time current pilots are upgrading in. When a Endeavor pilot tells you its an 9 year upgrade, that is for the 2007 hires. With the hundreds flowing to Delta in 2016-2017, 2015 hires will hold upgrade in a heartbeat. Just because a 2015 hire holds upgrade in 2017, doesn't mean a pilot hired in 2016-2017 will hold upgrade in 2 years. It could be sooner, it could be later.
More or less, upgrade is predicated on the movement above you and growth. In simple terms, 50% above you need to leave to upgrade, in a no growth environment. That said, you can probably hold it around 55%.
With the pilots flowing to Delta in the coming years and their growth, Endeavor will have the best prospects for someone starting now. Add on top of that their $52,000+/year base and it is as good of a bet you can make in this environment. Going forward, they will also have the best prospects, with Envoy sneaking up behind them with their good flow to AA. Things can change, but in this pilot pay shortage environment and mainline hiring, those would be the best and safest bets right now.