Originally Posted by
BeatNavy
Estimations on movement and upgrade times aren't factual information, even if flaps says it. Facts are that 2/3 of the seniority list at DL and I think AA/UA as well will retire in the next 10 years. A lot of that will happen in the next 5 years. Everyone who is still stuck in the lost decade mindset that there is no hiring and movement outside of regional growth hasn't absorbed that yet. Movement is happening. Attrition off the top at Mesa is happening. Lifers are changing their mind. Lateral moves aren't the only moves FOs are making either. LCCs are growing, legacies are growing, and retirements are happening. Even an economic downturn and the rise of oil prices in 9-12 months can't stop the retirements, and regional pilots (even Mesa ones) will move to LCCs and legacies (Until age 67 happens and delays it a couple more years). Until the right seats aren't filled, upgrades will remain quick (<2 years) here.
You are right, and I thought about that after I posted. Thanks for bringing it up. I wasn't speaking specifically about the upgrade times being factual. They are a forecast and as such, will always be an estimate. Upgrades are a moving target and I think they are somewhere between your 2 year estimate and Flap's 3+ year estimate. There are many variables that change upgrade times. I will say if you want to upgrade on the CRJ, it's going to be a longer wait than the EJet.
Almost every regional now offers the 2-3-4 year upgrade time for the reasons you mentioned. I don't know why someone coming in new would opt to work those FO years for much less than they could earn elsewhere. In some cases, by joining Mesa, they are earning less than half of the earnings they would make elsewhere. Thankfully things are finally changing and pilots are getting adequate compensation.
And I also agree with you about being stuck in the mindset of the lost decade. That was then. This is now. Times are changing.