Originally Posted by
iFlyRC
Attrition will help the new guys, keep hearing that 15 CA's left this month, but can't confirm.
Ok so that attrition represents 1.25% of the pilot group. If we maintain an overall roster of 1200-1500 pilots (that's about where we'll be after the 18th additional EJet arrives), and if we maintain an attrition rate of ~15-20 pilots/month, the math perfectly supports my assertion that a new hire FO with zero 121 time is looking at a 40-45% bump in FO seniority over a three year period, and a 1-2 year wait for upgrade after that.
Assuming that most of the people above them will be hitting 1,000 hours 121 time over that three year period as an FO, and subtracting off the lifer FOs, I'm very confident that unless there is a significant uptick in attrition (as a fraction of the pilot group), my statement holds--a new hire with zero 121 is looking at a 4-5 year upgrade time.
A lot of Houston pilots (particularly us Houston Captains) have developed a very skewed perspective on how fast things are moving systemwide, because we're a small base that's still receiving new birds on a regular basis (and because the CRJ guys are essentially ring-fenced off from our operation by the current contract).
1.25% global average attrition looks and "feels" like a lot more movement to an IAH CA or FO than it does to an IAD CA or FO--just saying. You have to look at the math to really understand what a new hire can actually expect in progression.