Originally Posted by David Puddy

That's some great analysis! I agree with a lot of it. A couple of differences:

1. Remember that cost can be broken into two categories: operating cost and financing cost. The CS300 would beat all competitors in the 120-150 seat range from an efficiency/operating standpoint with the new GTF engine and enhanced aerodynamics. The claim is a 15% cost savings vs competitors but that will need to be proven after introduction with SWISS. If the operating cost is much better, then financing cost (on a per hour basis) must also be better or equal to competing deals. Now, Boeing has proven with UAL they will offer super cheap deals to avoid more competition. Although Bombardier is being supported by Quebec, it also is desperate and needs a big volume deal for obvious reasons. Now is the best time for Delta to negotiate and get a better deal - it has negotiating leverage given the other options and Republic's recent bankruptcy puts 45 CS300 orders and 45 options up for grabs - probably at a steep discount... Now is the time before SWISS reveals the operational performance that may beat expectations and generate more interest. If the CS300 unit price is competitive relative to other choices and the operating cost is superior, the choice may be easier. Again, you get what you NEGOTIATE and Delta is known for its tough negotiating.

2. I sorta disagree that selecting the C-Series would be a huge gamble. The CS100 shares 95% part commonality with the bigger CS300 and Bombardier has been careful to mitigate risk so that the certification process would be smooth for aircraft after the CS100. Bugs for the CS100 and early CS300 positions will be worked out before Delta would see their first copy if they order it. Plus, Bombardier has service centers for the CRJs, Dashes and Bizjets all over the country - it is a well known vendor for Delta. It has a distribution system already in place for all of the RJs. No doubt Bombardier would make very strong assurances and guarantees as well - it would be in their best interest to ensure a big potential customer like Delta would be serviced properly.

3. Lastly, the CS300 would likely be favored by pax vs the traditional 737-700 and A319. Seating in the CS300, like the MD88, is 2X3 I believe, the windows are big and the bins offer a lot of space. It should be a comfortable airplane for both passengers and pilots. With its range capability, longer and thinner routes could be an option for Delta (e.g., Seattle to San Juan in the summer or Stockton to Kahalui). SWISS is planning to use both the CS100 and bigger CS300 on intra-European routes including to steep-angled London City Airport with its very short runway. Bottom line: the C-Series opens up the options on potential route pairings due to its new technology and its performance capability.

No doubt Delta will acquire many more E190s to add to the 20 they have bought so far. In the end, the CS300 makes sense at the right price because operational costs will be lower than legacy aircraft. Plus, if the CS300 does well in the market, expect Bombardier to potentially offer a bigger CS500 for the 150-170 seat market and that would likely upset Boeing and Airbus who are enjoying their duopoly in that seat range.... No doubt Delta would like to have more choices going forward to keep all prices competitive.