ag386

There are a few cheerleading Envoy pilots here that constantly are in sales mode on the threads relating to Envoy. They are always defending management's actions and looking only at management projections and memos to the pilot group to "sell" their product. They desperately need to sell this product because they need all the new hires they can get. Why? So that they can flow someday in the future. They are desperate to believe that what management has offered is indeed true. Just like those before them, when management's statements of "You'll be at AA in 5 years" came true.......15 years later, they are saying "this time is different." Below you'll see numbers on why this time is different, but for different reasons you will not likely see this flow continue unabated as management has stated.

It's no secret that Envoy, like almost every other regional, is having trouble getting new hires. New hire numbers have averaged between 7 and 10 per month in the first quarter of 2016.

Envoy has around 1850 pilots today. Management originally wanted an Envoy pilot group of around 1600 but that's rapidly changing and you may be near the "floor" management wants right now with their "revised" plans. Why? Because other regionals are having trouble bringing in the bodies to do the work as well. So, after spending the past four years trying to run off as many pilots as possible, management has FINALLY realized that yes, we do in fact need pilots to fly our planes. Especially since AAG has tasked them with more flying due to the other aforementioned regionals inability to get the job done. This is probably the only reason that the light bulb went off.

Now, Envoy truly is beginning to feel the squeeze or find themselves in a pickle if you will. The new hires aren't there and that is the problem.

Envoy has arguably been severely overstaffed the past year. That has quickly turned and Envoy is nearing this new "floor" of pilots on the revised flying plans that management has now. Since it appears that Envoy MAY be staffed properly today, it can be said that as the flow continues over the next few months along with present attrition, Envoy will very soon find themselves in a critical staffing situation.

Hiring 5 to 10 pilots per month isn't going to replace 40 leaving every month. As the seriously pro Envoy Patrol here is so quick to point out. "Do the math."

There will be some reprieve as Letter T pilots make their final decision over the next 6 weeks. Envoy flow will likely be on hold through the summer with only attrition taking pilots off the list. This MAY get Envoy through the summer but I predict Critical Coverage and possibly some vacations being cancelled just to meet the AAG flying schedule they will demand.

Flow could resume as early as September. With the reduced fall flying schedule and picking up 40-50 new pilots from now through the end of summer, Envoy will likely be able to allow classes of 30 to flow for a few months without causing too much of a disruption. This will take them near the end of the 824, which in my opinion, is where the game changes.

Late this year I predict Envoy will find themselves in a situation in which they cannot afford to lose a single pilot. The question is, what do you think will happen at that time? Do you think management will continue to honor this flow and suffer the consequences of idle CRJ700's, E145's and E175's? Or, do you think that they will put an emergency halt to the flow due to operational necessity?

Has Eagle/Envoy management ever violated an agreement with the pilot group in the past? Do you think that this flow agreement is a "sacred cow" that will not be touched? Many on here will say that they cannot as it will halt recruiting completely as that is the carrot drawing the recruits in. If it is, it certainly isn't attracting the hordes to Envoy at present.

My opinion is that Envoy will absolutely not hesitate to halt the flow and deal with the consequences in some other way. I can see them going to the union and hashing out some kind of deal bringing up pay for all Envoy pilots to some reasonable level. But they will not continue the flow in its present form. This new agreement may include an aggregate percentage between PDT/PSA/ENY that will flow as a whole and it will certainly not be 50% of AA new hire classes.

If you are a pilot and looking to a regional, I would strongly ask you to consider the above scenario before signing on the dotted line.