Ok! Can I just point out ONE HUGE major flaw in your hypothesis?
If we believe anything you say then your end advice should be, "do no go to any regional that flies American Eagle planes."
If AAG won't flow pilots because they need to keep their regional feed going, then why would AAG hire Compass, MESA, Skywest,or any other regional that flies American Eagle jets??
What AAG is going to do is way beyond your comprehension and mine and is all left up to one simple fact. AAG will take the cheapest way out every time. Or at least make the decision that they think will be the cheapest at the time.
If the flow stops or slows mass exodus will happen with envoy pilots. Just like mass exodus will happen if republic touches their pilots contract.