Originally Posted by
ag386
There are a few cheerleading Envoy pilots here that constantly are in sales mode on the threads relating to Envoy. They are always defending management's actions and looking only at management projections and memos to the pilot group to "sell" their product. They desperately need to sell this product because they need all the new hires they can get. Why? So that they can flow someday in the future. They are desperate to believe that what management has offered is indeed true. Just like those before them, when management's statements of "You'll be at AA in 5 years" came true.......15 years later, they are saying "this time is different." Below you'll see numbers on why this time is different, but for different reasons you will not likely see this flow continue unabated as management has stated.
It's no secret that Envoy, like almost every other regional, is having trouble getting new hires. New hire numbers have averaged between 7 and 10 per month in the first quarter of 2016.
Envoy has around 1850 pilots today. Management originally wanted an Envoy pilot group of around 1600 but that's rapidly changing and you may be near the "floor" management wants right now with their "revised" plans. Why? Because other regionals are having trouble bringing in the bodies to do the work as well. So, after spending the past four years trying to run off as many pilots as possible, management has FINALLY realized that yes, we do in fact need pilots to fly our planes. Especially since AAG has tasked them with more flying due to the other aforementioned regionals inability to get the job done. This is probably the only reason that the light bulb went off.
Now, Envoy truly is beginning to feel the squeeze or find themselves in a pickle if you will. The new hires aren't there and that is the problem.
Envoy has arguably been severely overstaffed the past year. That has quickly turned and Envoy is nearing this new "floor" of pilots on the revised flying plans that management has now. Since it appears that Envoy MAY be staffed properly today, it can be said that as the flow continues over the next few months along with present attrition, Envoy will very soon find themselves in a critical staffing situation.
Hiring 5 to 10 pilots per month isn't going to replace 40 leaving every month. As the seriously pro Envoy Patrol here is so quick to point out. "Do the math."
There will be some reprieve as Letter T pilots make their final decision over the next 6 weeks. Envoy flow will likely be on hold through the summer with only attrition taking pilots off the list. This MAY get Envoy through the summer but I predict Critical Coverage and possibly some vacations being cancelled just to meet the AAG flying schedule they will demand.
Flow could resume as early as September. With the reduced fall flying schedule and picking up 40-50 new pilots from now through the end of summer, Envoy will likely be able to allow classes of 30 to flow for a few months without causing too much of a disruption. This will take them near the end of the 824, which in my opinion, is where the game changes.
Late this year I predict Envoy will find themselves in a situation in which they cannot afford to lose a single pilot. The question is, what do you think will happen at that time? Do you think management will continue to honor this flow and suffer the consequences of idle CRJ700's, E145's and E175's? Or, do you think that they will put an emergency halt to the flow due to operational necessity?
Has Eagle/Envoy management ever violated an agreement with the pilot group in the past? Do you think that this flow agreement is a "sacred cow" that will not be touched? Many on here will say that they cannot as it will halt recruiting completely as that is the carrot drawing the recruits in. If it is, it certainly isn't attracting the hordes to Envoy at present.
My opinion is that Envoy will absolutely not hesitate to halt the flow and deal with the consequences in some other way. I can see them going to the union and hashing out some kind of deal bringing up pay for all Envoy pilots to some reasonable level. But they will not continue the flow in its present form. This new agreement may include an aggregate percentage between PDT/PSA/ENY that will flow as a whole and it will certainly not be 50% of AA new hire classes.
If you are a pilot and looking to a regional, I would strongly ask you to consider the above scenario before signing on the dotted line.
It's time to call this post what it is. Total BS. Number one, this guy doesn't even work here. He has an axe to grind with Envoy for whatever reason. The fact is, he's probably upset that he isn't at Envoy so that he can take advantage of the flow. Are you upset that you left Envoy for Allegiant ag? Realizing now that it was a mistake?
Listen people, we just posted a vacancy for 87 Captain spots. We are getting two of our E-145's back from Expressjet and you can look for even more of that in the near future. There are big plans in the works for the E-175 program. As many of you are aware, Republic is having trouble meeting their flight schedule. You'll see some shifting going on soon that will favor Envoy.
All of this will require more pilots and more Captains. As those Captains flow to AA at the rate of 30 per month, guess what? The upgrade time is going to drop exponentially. That 2.5 year upgrade you keep hearing about. It's for real. The flow? Look at 5.5 years now. It was described very accurately in another post titled How Envoy's 5.5 Year Flow Works.
Some people just can't take it that Envoy is doing so well. As said before, management is positioning Envoy to be the premiere regional carrier in the U.S. We are far and away the best in terms of what we offer already to prospective new hires. Let me ask you. Is Endeavor offering a 5.5 year no interview flow to Delta? No. They have to interview and even then, their time at Endeavor is much, much longer than 5 years. And our contract blows theirs away by a long shot. And this is the next closest thing to Envoy in terms of what a regional carrier offers.
Envoy has already flowed almost 500 people to AA in the past couple of years. The flow works people. AAG did this to attract the new hires and to position Envoy for success. If you are here bad mouthing Envoy I say, get over it. Envoy is doing extremely well and will continue to do so. I would guess that others at lesser carriers are jealous of the flow program we have since no one else has it.