Originally Posted by
MitchRapp
I don't know if you're misunderstanding the situation or if I am misunderstanding you. There are only one set of 700s coming. There are no "new" 700s coming, only the transfers, and only 3 of them have been deferred until next year. Can that change again? Sure. But it hasn't yet and there is still time for something to happen. From what I gathered our staffing model is 10 pilots per airplane, you can do the math from there. I will agree with you that from what we know to be fact at this point, not speculation, doesn't look ideal. My 9 years in this industry have shown me nothing is certain, though, nothing. Good or bad.
I agree nothing is certain. A series of BK could create a plentiful source of pilots. A new war or economic collapse could stop everything. None of that can be planned on or managed by D&D. What they can manage is their **** poor decisions while things are good. They could have kept riding the momentum created here until they achieved 150 aircraft. They ****ed it away.
I apologize. What I have been calling "new" 700s were the additional transfers after the 900 deliveries. Yes we've deffered delivery of 700s, I thought 5, and delayed/slowed the 900 deliveries to ease our "staffing challenges." Do you really think the spicket is going to get turned on a few months from now when we have even fewer pilots? 10 pilots per aircraft, using 1 of the 2 or 3 different staffing numbers put out by the company means 110-113 aircraft. IF everyone on the seniority list is on the line. How many of them are flows and are just place holders? How many are on mil leave, sim instructors, etc, etc, etc. We can't staff 110 aircraft. We are feeling the staffing crunch already. Jr Manning in April with no real storms, events to justify being short pilots. Summer is only going to be worse. If we started hiring today we might see the new FOs by fall/winter.