My guess is they will view you as a flight risk if you're a regional captain. They might hire you but my guess is they would prefer someone less experienced that they could trap since they have zero interest in coming to the table with something worth ratifying at this point.
When a TA does come im not sure where first year pay might be. The negotiating committee and many pilots view first year pay as something we shouldn't spend negotiating capital on and market forces will force the company to bring it in line with other Airbus operators. I personally think the company would be fine with getting less qualified applicants to save money on first year pay. That's not really acceptable to many such as myself because I don't want to be giving OE every trip for no override because the NC chose to let the company do the right thing (which they won't).
Long story short is who knows?
I won't vote for anything that doesn't mirror United's pay and retirement at all longevities especially since they will jump again to whatever delta gets with the me too clause they have and then be negotiating again in January 2019. Anything less than what they have will have us being the anchor again in just 3 years if not sooner.