Apparently that 6 years to flow number includes some generous assumptions regarding attrition, which quite frankly aren't too hard to believe. While I can't conscience telling a potential recruit that it's going to be a 6.5 year flow, or whatever they're trying towel these days, it would also be true that to say 5 a month and 1200 people senior to you is a wildly inaccurate number as well.

Bottom line: no one knows what the next several years holds. I have my theories, and none of them include new hires waiting 20 years to flow to mainline.