While on property new hires leaving and training "no shows" is a somewhat emotional issue for those in recruitment, I think both numbers are still pretty low. Even a few gets someone's attention of course, but I'd bet for every new hire that bails for UAL, AA or wherever, its almost always because of bases and for every one we lose we get one from them.

The real metric to watch is one that isn't nearly as easy to measure, and one that we will likely never see the data on in the first place. Its the number of candidates in the "tiers" they value on air apps that either don't take an interview (because they're already hired somewhere else etc) or who interview and get the offer but politely decline well in advance of class (so not a "no show"). For example they will eventually run out of Summa Cum Laude graduates and have to dip in to the Magna Cum Laude pool. What a dark and scary day that will be.

They will always be able to fill classes. But they've been used to getting everything they want in every applicant they pick. Those days will come to an end and they will have to "lower their standards" for lack of a better term. That will help drive some positive changes, and for others I'm willing to "spend negotiating capital" to make it better for new hires as well. But not as part of a side letter to fix something for the company.