Originally Posted by
Slick111
.
Let's do some quick and (very) dirty math, given "current conditions".
* We have 1174 pilots on the seniority list.
* About half of those pilots are First Officers, (587).
* Upgrades are currently running at 4 per month.
* If all of those f/o's hang around long enough to upgrade, today's new hire is looking at 12.2 years to upgrade.
* If 75% of our current f/o's stick it out long enough to upgrade, today's new hire is looking at 9.1 years to upgrade.
* If only 50% of our f/o's stay long enough to upgrade, today's new hire is looking at 6.1 years 'till upgrade.
Your mileage may vary.
That is just ridiculous math.
Here are some facts...
In the last 2 years, PSA hired A LOT of Endeavor (and other) pilots with 8+ years of experience in the regionals and they all upgraded very quickly, if not immediately. Most of those have 1000 or so hours as CA, and about 8,000 hours total time. Those captains are starting to leave PSA in steady numbers for LCC's.
There are A LOT of FO's at PSA that are stuck in the right seat after 18 months and are looking for DEC slots at other airlines.
The current attrition is about 15 per month on average, but it would not take much for it to jump to 35-40 per month. If some LCC picked up a bunch of really good and experienced pilots that did 8 years with Endeavor and 2+ years with PSA, that could mean that PSA would lose 20 captains a month, if not more. Likewise, if some regional started offering DEC or Street Captain slots, we could lose 25+ FO's a month.
The attrition is bad at PSA right now, but it could get MUCH worse.
Management treats the pilots at PSA pretty badly. That is no secret. Once the flood gates open, there will be an exodus from here.
If this happens, time spent on reserve will fall to just a few months, and anyone with 1000 hours SIC will be able to upgrade.
It is all cyclical.