I think you are being over optimistic about the rate of people leaving on the captain side. The attrition is mainly from the middle to bottom part of the seniority list. Very few captains are leaving for LCC's, some have left for cargo, others to United and Delta and some to flow. Average in the top 30% of the list is more like 5 per month over the past 3 years. I base that on where I am now vs when I was hired.

The top 70-80 aren't going anywhere.

The folks from Endeavor mainly were mid 2015 upgrades, so they won't have 1000 TPIC for a while. I suspect some will bail once they do. The DEC's will tire of sitting reserve for eternity and some of them will leave too. Then of course some FO's will chase quick upgrades and such elsewhere.

It's definitely not 2-2.5 years that PSA advertises and its probably not 10 either. Who the hell really knows?

There is going to be a solid number entrenched in those captain slots though, that much I can guarantee. Most will wait for flow or a major only. Going to an LCC is a lateral move at best once you've upgraded. Not too many are going to jump at the chance to sling gear on reserve for less than they make now.

You have the 70-80 lifers at the top already. Then a good amount of older guys from Comair too. Lot's of variables to consider really when you think about it, for a finite number slots.

Do what works today, that's all you can really do. Expect the worst case scenario and make a decision.