I would tend to agree, but there is a wild card in the mix.

IF (and only IF) PSA is able to attract new hires, and the CRJ700's come over from Envoy, then a new hire today at PSA could have a good career and a short stay at PSA. All of the FO's on property will be able to upgrade quickly. PSA is losing more pilots from the bottom of the list than they are the top. Attrition is picking up. A new hire will move up a couple hundred seniority numbers their first year.

That would allow Envoy to keep their flow at 30 a month, since they will be losing airframes to PSA. It will not hurt them. And, in the long run, would be really good for PSA as well.

What it would take for that to happen would be a pay raise or a massive flow increase at PSA. I just don't see that happening.