Originally Posted by
Hueypilot
^^^ I agree ^^^
As stated before, what you see today will not be the dynamics you'll see in a year or two.
LAX, I predict, will become much more senior. I think with the retirements, a new hire will still be able to bid into LAX within a year or two, but it won't be junior like it is today.
PHX will shrink some and I've heard of a 737 base opening there, but I don't think it'll ever be very junior.
MIA will probably get slightly more senior in the short term as the LUS Floridians move down that way (flew with a captain today who plans on bidding MIA). But ultimately it'll probably remain somewhat junior.
DFW, CLT and ORD will probably remain senior WRT to international flying, fairly senior for CA seats in general, and probably middle seniority for everything else.
PHL and NYC will stay junior is my guess. BOS will stay fairly senior because of it's size and DCA will probably stay somewhat senior, again because it's a small base.
You've basically just predicted that every base will be senior in the short term except PHL and NYC which doesn't really make any sense.
My prediction (which is worth about what you paid for it)
PHL will lose some widebody flying and the remaining widebody spots will go senior. Will remain a junior base for narrowbody although it will lose some narrowbody flying as well IMHO.
CLT will remain relatively senior and will become a popular spot for LAA pilots who live in the South to bid into.
NYC will be junior due to cost of living.
MIA will continue to be junior.
DFW will go slightly more senior due to PHX pilot influx but the overall effect will be tempered by some growth both domestic and international.
LAX will remain junior in the short term due to international growth and cost of living despite many west coast LUS'ers bidding in.
ORD will remain where it is.
STL I'm not sure... don't fully understand the effect of Sup C to comment.
PHX is at the moment "very senior" due to being a bidding island. Many will jump ship to DFW or LAX, a few will bid in, and the flying will be shrunk. Overall effect is that it continues to be senior but not as senior as it appear to be now.
BOS will grow with the addition of LUS flying to the base and it will become less senior than it is, but still overall a senior base.
DCA will lose some flying but continue to be a relatively junior base due to cost of living and nature of the trips.