It is not all rainbows and unicorns, but that is as solid a projection as you are going to get.

We are already losing 5+ FOs a month to outside attrition (which is 100 in 18 months) right now. That number will likely increase. We could lose 10-15 in any given month.I was using a conservative number.

We will likely have closer to 100 FOs bypass upgrade. Some are on extended medical or military leave. Even more are ground instructors. Then we have the "lifer" FO's. I used the number of 50, which is really worst case scenario, so I was painting an accurate picture, not a pipe dream.

We will be hiring at least 40 a month, probably more. We will easily be able to upgrade 20 a month. Our last several upgrade classes averaged right at 7-8 per class. I think they will probably increase to 12 or 15 every two weeks, much like it was a year ago. I estimated upgrade classes of 10 just to be conservative.

If I wanted to be overly optimistic, I would have said that every FO on property will upgrade in 12 months. But I said 18 months, which is very realistic given the current circumstances.