Originally Posted by
daOldMan
I would not be surprised if Isom's plan for the regionals is to cut the number of contract carriers in half.
AA has said that they were going to cut "several" in the next few years. There will be 3 gone in the next 5 years for sure.
I think the fate of the WO has changes as well. Now, AA seems to want to grow all 3 of the WO. Envoy can easily go to 3000 pilots, and PSA could grow to 2500 under the new plan. I am not sure what they are planning with PDT, but it will likely involve absorbing them into Envoy, likely on a separate certificate at first. They want a CRJ carrier, and an ERJ carrier. There is absolutely no reason to duplicate the management structure and facilities that are required to run three regionals when it could easily be done by 2.
If they could ever succeed in this, and they keep the flow going, it will be possible for them to mandate that AA pilots will only come from their own WO regionals, and that time will be 5-6 years. Go to a college with a cadet program, go straight from there to a RJ (tuition reimbursement will cover a portion of training expenses), spend 2 years as a FO, 3-4 years as a captain, and flow to AA. A nice career progression that is completely sustainable. A "cradle to the grave" type of scenario.
I think it's a stretch to say that the WOs are going to grow that much. Make no mistake, I do believe they will TRY and grow us, but the attrition over the next few years will make that nearly impossible I think. I think PSA will end up around 1500 pilots and about 150-160 airframes primarily flying the east coast feed for AA. Any growth beyond that is impossible to predict. I think a lot will depend on what ultimately happens to Mesa as well.