Originally Posted by
victormike
And for those who question 5ish years here is the math:
469 (Total Number of Pilots) - 100 (Pilots who won't flow- Arbitrary number)=369
(369/6) (6 is derived from the Average Attrition plus the flow number)=61.5 months
61.5/12 (This breaks it down to years) = 5.12 years or 5 Years and 3 months
Always subject to change obviously, but the trend won't go down for the foreseeable future.
The problem with this math is it assumes the additional attrition outside of the flow is always people senior to you, which will not be true. I would agree with 5 years as a result of us growing and the population growing ultimately allowing more flow pilots per month, but conservatively counting only flow pilots the time to flow is considerably longer than 5 years. Regardless of the mechanism, I agree 5 years sounds like an accurate flow time for a new hire TODAY. Each month you delay that time goes up so if you are considering a lateral move the sooner you do it the better