Originally Posted by
Braniff DC8
We've been here before, a number of times then the rug gets pulled out from under you. One story that always stays in the back of my mind is the USAir 330. In the 1988/89/90 time frame, USAir hired 330. They were then all furloughed for like ten years.
This business is fical and cyclical. One old friend got hired at UAL in 1966. He made jet FO (Boeing 720) in six months. Another got hired at TWA in 67/68, was furloughed like three times, gave up, went to Piedmont, made F28 Captain quick, merged with USAir, retired as a DC-9 Captain, lost his pension and now flies a Cessna 310 around doing aerial photography at 74 years old.
The airlines hire until they furlough. There will be another downturn and furloughs, not if, when! Getting drunk on cool aid is fine and then reality sets in.
Not trying to be a pessimist but a realist. How about all the pilots overseas? 100s looking for a spot and few get called.
There is no shortage, regionals will merge or shut down. There will be another downturn-pure economics. The U.S. is in debt and another war (Persian Gulf) will fix the problem.
Advice, tuck your money away. The UAL guy I mentioned lost his pension too after 35 years but tucked money away and he's ok.
Two years, or less to Capt at the Big D. It was two years to the left seat at Braniff in 78/79/80. Big hiring, big expansion, 747s, new uniforms, new big beautiful corporate headquarters and paint job. By 1982, it was all gone!
Love the list of those regionals, here's mine. All gone in some way.
Westair
Golden West
Pocono
Suburban
Pennsylvania
Business Express
Rio
Cascade
Brockway
CC Air
Mall
Precision
New Air
Pilgrim
GP Express
PBA
Air Midwest
Atlantic Coast
+ lots more.
Rant Finished
I agree, and the regionals are going to shrink. Many will go away. That list of defunct regionals will likely double in size.
But the majors will not shrink. Not much, anyways. There are only a few legacy airlines left, and the government will not let them fail. They are too essential to commerce in the country. Imagine what would happen if there was only one legacy? Fares would skyrocket and business travel would suffer.
They will need to fill the seats that they are being vacated due to age.
What I said was that the majors and LCC's are going to hire close to 20,000 in the next 4 years. There are currently 20,000 regional pilots. That was the end of my statement.
Will every regional pilot go to a major or LCC? Absolutely not. Not even close. But the game is changing.
If 50% of the regional pilots - the ones with clean records, ones that have PIC time, and a college degree - go to the majors, then the entire regional industry will be much different than it is now.
If there is another war, it is likely that military pilots will be retained and discharges will be denied. There truly is a shortage in military pilots.
The top 15% are probably not going to go anywhere. They are lifers at their regional, at least until they shut down. Nor are the bottom 15%. It is the middle group that will be leaving.