Originally Posted by TED74

Almost all commuters may bid a VB, but surely they won't all get it, right? How is it a boon to ALL commuters?

Will they all get it? I'd say that depends on a couple of factors but you are probably right. Not all of them will. As for the ones who don't, if they don't get it that can only mean that pilots senior to them got it so they have now increased their seniority in category. It remains to be seen how much time will be pulled out of the original category but my educated guess is that the pilots who don't get it will actually have better bidding power. The reason being the VB will have to have some kind of reserve coverage. This coverage is going to come from the guys who bid and get the VB.

It remains to be seen if the seniority many of the VBers achieve in their VBs makes the shift worthwhile. It's not even clear to me that bidders will be able to set a percentage floor for seniority. A 30% pilot could end up 99% in the VB if protections aren't provided. And those commuters who aren't selected to VB will be left with a smaller bid package in their existing base.

See above.

To your last point, I'm not sure the hiring rate affects one's progression from NB to WB although it may improve QOL for those who can't hold WB at the seniority they require. Retirements naturally help progression to WB, but since they don't really accelerate much during this contract, that argument is premature. I think the effect of VBs (and ALV widening) will indeed be felt by many.

My hunch is that getting paid UAL's hourly rate (well below the earnings of FedEx and UPS) is a carrot big enough to disregard these sticks, FWIW.