That's a difficult question to answer.
A new hire on the Q400 will have an infinitely poorer experience than a new hire on the jet.
We also have a few variables that make predicting our future difficult:
1. We have a serious problem attracting new hires here, and Alaska refuses to acknowledge reality and work with our union to come up with a solution that brings us up to industry standard.
2. Because of the aforementioned problem, management is threatening our future flying if we cannot get new hires here to staff the Q400s when the jet comes online (e.g. "blame the pilots for our staffing problems")
3. Because we don't know whether or not our operation will be staffed, we can't predict the next two years because we don't know if Q400s will be parked or not. Management has made it clear they do not want to park ANY planes next year, however finding an additional 78 FO's in addition to normal attrition will be next to impossible unless things change.
4. No new hire in their right mind would take a Q400 class date when the jet classes are running simultaneously. This will lead to new hires saying in the interview "Give me the jet or I'm outta here."
Anyway, I see things playing out in a couple ways:
1. Alaska decides to stop being an evil greedy corporation and understands in today's market (most) new hire pilots will not tolerate living on food stamps their first year. The company and union work out an LOA that brings us up to industry standard. Next year the jets begin to arrive, staffing won't be an issue, we grow 13 airplanes and the upgrade time goes back down to the ~2 year range. Life on the Q400 will continue to be terrible as PBS is implemented and the awful schedules continually get worse. Life on the jet will be amazing and superior than the Q400 in every way imaginable.
2. Alaska continues the status quo and refuses to pay pilots more. It becomes apparent the operation cannot be staffed and Alaska issues a nuclear threat "take these concessions or we're giving the jets away to Skywest." The pilots hold their ground and Alaska gives the jets away. Then the great exodus begins as FOs realize they will never upgrade since 90% of our captains are lifers, and bail to other regionals. Horizon later dies a slow but steady death.
Come sit for 12 hours, 6 legs a day in our state-of-the-art Q400s! Never missed a cleaning cycle! (hint: because there isn't one and they've never been cleaned in years!)
