They are expecting to lose more than 50% of 2014 and 2015 hires in the next year or two.

The majority of 2014 hires have more than 5000TT and now more than 1000TPIC. They are getting picked up by everyone.

AAG did provide real calculations to back up their flow numbers, but there are so many variables that there is no way of telling if they are correct.

If attrition of 2014 and early 2015 hires hits and remains at 20-25 a month, as is expected, the flow numbers will be that fast.

If we lose 300 to attrition from the middle of the list in a year, plus flow 60, then we just lost 1/3 of our list in 1 year.

Do that twice, and a new hire is suddenly top 1/3 of the list in 2 years. Then you will move much slowly, which will take another 2-3 or 4 years.

That is how they are calculating the flow numbers.

But no one knows if that will happen. It is a guess.