Originally Posted by
Nevjets
There is no tail risk with the 145s. And it's not Skywest calling the shots in short term deals with these 50 seaters. For example, if UAL wanted a long term deal (>2years) that Inc can make a profit from, of course they would sign that deal. Also, UAL has given long term deals for these same 145s to TSA and Commutair. Keep in mind that Inc has negotiated and renegotiated this money losing CPA three separate times and it's still unprofitable. It's UAL who has Inc over the barrel, and along with them the employees who have done nothing wrong to deserve what's happening.
UAL has said they are planning on having less than 100 fifty seat regional jets by 2019. With 36 of the 145s now at TSA (along with the dozen or so they already have) and 40 in the process of being transferred to Commutair, I don't see how that leaves any 50 seat jets for Skywest or XJT to operate for UAL, especially since UAL has tail risk on those 145s to at least 2020.
Lastly, the line bidding and vacation touching as not as lucrative as being portrayed relative to ASA's PBS. But it is true that pilot costs are higher than Skywest. So it makes sense that they put any and all CRJ and 175 flying at Skywest.
I think we are arriving at the same place. INC puts assets where they can be most productive and that isn't XJET unfortunately for them. They truly have the short end of the stick but you cannot really blame INC for the dynamics either even though I am sure it doesn't feel that great at XJET.
I think you are correct in the sense that INC has renegotiated the UA contract multiple times - and it still isn't great. But again, we are in the same spot. once the contract is up INC will pull out or only sign a profitable extension. If long term deals were profitable, I am sure INC will go after them. But INC has also figured out that the ad-hoc stuff that arises when other regionals cannot cover it is even more profitable and that is there MO right now... also on the SKYW side.
50 seaters at UA... I know what has been announced and yet I only believe it when I see it. Their plans change almost monthly. And with Kirby in there I am sure the regional lift will get a whole different level of attention. Time will tell. But I don't believe that the 50 seaters will go anywhere barring any catastrophic event that results in a downturn.