FD,

This opinion is from an ex-Xjetter, take it for what its worth...

I don't think SKYW will be shuttering XJT by 2017, on either side.

There are two sides to XJT. L-ASA, which flies the CRJ, and L-XJT that flies the ERJ. This blurb is on L-ASA. ATL is L-ASA. L-ASA also has bases in DTW (for now) and DFW. L-ASA recently got a bunch of LGA flying. I don't think they will open a base there, but we do TDY a bunch of people up there every week. L-ASA is shutting down its maintenance base in DTW. That's a big deal. We had quite a bit of DTW flying (see base above), but that is slowly being taken over by SKYW. We paired down our DTW flying when we were "awarded" the LGA flying (not a good omen BTW). Over the year or so we have also seen our total awarded flying decrease on the Delta side (can't speak to the L-XJT as I didn't fly for them). Our flying seems to be going to SKYW and Endeavor (they can staff, L-ASA can't).

Now, back to the shuttering issue. There are many factors involved, but the common denominator is SKYW, being XJT owner, makes business decisions based on profitability. L-ASA can't staff, unlike SKYW, so with the positive manning, SKYW can handle more flying, and they get it - and they generate more profit for INC. Not to mention they are adding new aircraft. It is a nexus that is positive. L-ASA is struggling to staff, losing flying and is not getting any new metal. A nexus as well, but in the negative direction. SKYW can't shutter L-ASA/L-XJT in a year. There's simply too much lift to staff in a short period of time. So SKYW has to keep L-ASA/XJT around for as long as it takes for them to amp up staffing. Not sure about who owns L-ASA/XJT jets, that might be part of the equation as well. Perhaps someone with that knowledge can chime in here. But as you can see, SKYW can slowly wind down L-ASA/XJT as they continue to ramp up manning and airframes until they reach a favorable cross over point. It is at that cross over that I believe SKYW will begin to aggressively shutter L-ASA/XJT. This is just my opinion.

If you decide to enter the regional world, IMHO you should look elsewhere than XJT. You won't upgrade. You will be on reserve for a long time. If you were hired today, you will spend 18-24 months or longer on reserve. Those times will only increase as the staffing and stagnant seniority list drive that time frame.

The "senior" folks....many are there for the duration. It is a very senior pilot group. There are a few that leave, but the majority of movement out is coming from the midlevel FO group. Since there is little to no movement off the top, and hiring is not occurring at sufficient rates to stave off attrition, the seniority list is stagnated. Refer back to the unfavorable nexus I mentioned.

Where to look, well, that is something you need to decide. I certainly don't want to discourage you, L-ASA has a phenomenal training department and a great pilot corps with a very good PWA. Unfortunately at this point in time, they are stuck between a rock and hard place.

This is a fickle industry, today's gem is tomorrows dog. But depending on your time horizon, you may wish to consider going elsewhere. Again, just my opinion.