Sounds like the early/mid 80's, mid/late 90s and its happening again. When provided with options more folks are going to punch and see what the other side is like. As far as stoploss, highly unlikey you will see it as it puts a real bend on end of year authorized personnel numers - as a stoplossee (Detained 6 1/2 months passed my separation date) the bosses kept telling us we would not be released and that we were clowns for punching in spring of 2002, come summer and USAFs request for additional 10000 bodies beyond authorization gets shot down and BAM! we're released and oh by the way please be completely separated by Sep 30. Bottom line is if you like what you're doing - stay in take the bonus and lead from the front when your time to do so comes, don't like - quit, still want to log time on the governments dollar and fly the occaisional mission - find a guard or reserve job and the most important thing - Don't look back and second guess. As for me it all worked out and that six months with a pregnant wife, one small child and no health insurance just made me that much stronger. fwiw