Originally Posted by
TalkTurkey
I doubt there will be any change when AK retires. Why should there be? They know who they are and they know who they want. The only real reason 9E cares is because of our own staffing. I don't have the numbers but I believe AA has the market capacity share of entry-level aviators cornered in large part due to career progression. My opinion is born from the fact that compensation is pretty equal. So, screw the flow to mainline. Flow to DAL only comes from the Navy and the Air Mobility Command.
In addition to that, the lack of incoming aircraft means that we will now hire only for attrition. So reserve is likely to remain stagnant or even climb in seniority in DTW and MSP until say, next summer if the additional -200 rumor takes flight. -900 for even longer, perhaps. Again, I have no data and this is purely an opinion. Still, 9E is a good place to work with respect to being a regional carrier.
Management is hoping to fix the stagnation in DTW and MSP with the opening of the "Southern 200 base" but I doubt that will help much if at all... How many guys that lived in MEM commuted to ATL just to fly the 900? Quite a few I'm told. What makes you think they are going to bid off the 900 in DTW or MSP to commute to the 200 in ATL??? I think this is a big miscalculation. We will become even more overstaffed on the 900 in DTW and MSP because even more flying on that plane is scheduled to shift to New York next year and the captains on that plane aren't interested in going to the 200 in any base. Now maybe you change some of their minds if you offered to pay them 900 pay to change planes, but I doubt it. They simply don't want the extra work involved with the 200 (extra legs per day and less automated systems for example) I think the only ways you move guys out of DTW and MSP 900 captain in any real numbers over the next 10 years is either a true flow through or a displacement. And a flow may not even be enough to thin these positions with how many lifers are there. Or bring flying back to those bases for the 900.. but that's not likely to happen in the next couple years as things currently are.