Originally Posted by
RJRJ
When you say "no upgrade in sight," that's just not true. We have 95 airplanes on property now. According to the fleet plan, we will have 157 in FIVE YEARS. How can you say upgrades will stop when the company is growing 50% in 5 years? I would say that days of 2.5 year upgrades are over (until / unless another order is announced). But 4 to 5 years sounds reasonable.
In initial training early this year, I ran across a DTW FO who moved half way up the FO side of the base in one year. I've moved 1/4 of the way up in about the same amount of time. Not as much as I'd like, but by the jist of what I read of the last quarterly notes, it SOUNDED like management wants to put some planes on order in '18. Trying to decide between Airbus and Bombardier.
Also, from the beginning of this year to present, there are 9 more 319s at the end of the fleet plan because they aren't going back to the lessor. This is the same as buying 9 more planes (which need Captains.)
95 + 95 (you know, roughly the amount of airplanes needed to double our fleet and therefore upgrade if your are a new hire now, minus a few for attrition) =190. Not 157. You will need enough people to leave to put you in the top half of the list, or more deliveries. Simple math.