Originally Posted by
ORDinary
Yeah, I guess it depends on the size of the AA classes. I've heard anywhere from 750 to 1000 new hires there for 2017. In the past I think their summer classes have been a little smaller, so it seems that maybe the first 3 or 4 months they will have to run at capacity in the schoolhouse if they will make 800 or so for the year. If they manage 80-90/mo for the first quarter of the year we may fall behind the aggregate...or not. It's all just speculation.
It does look like the finishing of the 824 might be a couple of months before the 40th 175, so we will probably have some slim months of flow over the summer.
Yep, I think you're right in that it's really going to depend on AA class size. From what folks have been saying, they have been tight on narrow body staffing and playing catch up. The speculation was that they were requesting 40/mo from envoy to make sure they hit the 824 number right at the 1,648 mark, because they were planning on having large new hire classes for the first few months of 2017.
But then of course, RW statement (and the rumor mill) seems to indicate they have said they can't do 40/mo. So either they REALLY want to see Nicolau yet again over the same arbitration, or they plan on having mid-year classes with largely envoy folks at the end of the 824 in order to avoid running foul of it. It would give them time to get more new hires online and some of the upgrade backlog cleared. But as usual since they don't tell us much of anything, this is all just throwing darts while blindfolded.