Originally Posted by
Winston
You're conflating correlation with causation: sub-standard regional pay was expanded to the extent it has been at the point of a gun as bankruptcy courts dictated terms. In today's market, the reality is that that flying will be brought in-house and those former regional pilots will be paid close to 200% what they were formerly paid to fly the same or similar routes/equipment.
There are half as many legacies as there used to be. Have you seen their quarterly earnings? Have you seen the orders the big three are currently taking delivery of? Have you seen those pay rates? Have you seen the retirement graphs?
The supply/demand curve is a beautiful thing when it benefits YOU.
This all sounds great but I don't see how legacys can start paying their regional pilots 200% when they hire them all and still make money. Give or take a few percentage points, they fly 40% of their passengers on their regionals. Even with oil as cheap as it is, it would be a huge swing in cost if they even took over 10% from the regionals. I hope I'm wrong but
I think hard times are ahead for the big three. Delta seems in the best position with already a strong domestic operation.