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Old 02-03-2017 | 10:21 AM
  #39  
msprj2
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Originally Posted by GoNova
We should be receiving at least 2 planes a month, 3 certain months apparently, putting that at 24-30 planes granted some dashes are being retired # unknown.

Key point in this debate of growth is the sheer percentage of growth, piedmont will be over 700 pilots by the end of 2017 and started with less than 400 at the beginning of 2016. The flow number increases with the number of pilots on property and I believe the goal is significantly more than 700. Everyone on property moves up a large percentage of seniority based on our small size and relatively large classes. Not to mention the large number (approximately 100 pilots) not flowing. With these numbers it will be 4 a month for about the first 3 months than 5 the rest of the year possibly 6 the last couple months that is at least 67 flowing, not bad for pilot X who was 370 at the beginning of 2016 with only 270 ahead of them, counting 0 attrition above them that's putting that pilot at a 4 year flow if it makes it to 6 a month which it will easily be at this rate in 2018 that puts them at 2.1 years to flow from the beginning of 2018 after being hired the beginning of 2016 with ZERO, one more time ZERO attrition outside the flow. Also continuous realistic growth at the pace PDT is hiring it could be 7 a month reducing flow time more, while keeping that 4 year mark for people hired throughout 2016 and 2017 realistic. These are based off of numbers PDT is realistically achieving through current hiring, and absolutely no attrition. We are in a unique situation with a large group not flowing.

P.S. for PDT to get to 7 a month reducing 2016 flow numbers below 4 a year they just need to hire at the current pace 25 a month (which they are trying to increase) for 11.8 more months with 556 on property currently. Obviously they lose pilots during growth through flow/attrition so if they can hire at that pace for about 15 months a lot of people can seriously be eyeing up a 4 year flow. PDT also doesn't need to hire 50-60 a month just to keep up with attrition and sustained growth like much larger regionals. By the way anyone who says this is a perfect world where nothing bad happens to the airline industry (such as recession) remember if it does it will probably affect all regionals making all there perks (quick upgrade, DGI) be longer/worse not just PDTs.
So if we look at best or worst case scenario depending when your hired
700 pilots and 70/yr to flow. minus 100 who wont. 9 years to flow???
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