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That's my best guess. Time will tell.
United is one Carl Ichan away from the same fate as TWA. In fact all our airlines are. However, UA has historically been the worst managed legacy with more boom bust cycles than others. Originally Posted by Car Ramrod
NAI will continue to add flights to the US and eventually enter into a codeshare with an airline such as Spirit or another ULCC- just like they did with Ryanair in Europe. The legacies will lose a portion of that international travel but they will adjust. The two business models will co-exist with the ULCC model being under 10% of the total seat-miles. Legacy airlines will still be the highest paid/best product. None of the legacies will go out of business. None will furlough (thanks to the retirements), but upgrades will be a bit longer. Southwest will turn out to be the best US career (like it always has been) if you are to look back to now from 20 years in the future. That's my best guess. Time will tell.
Lots of evolving threats these days and I think it's silly to be so sure about any airlines future.
As far as the ULCC sticking to less than 10% of the market, just look at your own example of Ryann Air. It's now the largest airline in Europe.
If we are going to keep wages high in this country we can't be cavalier about the threat NIA poses. And legacy pilots should be pulling for NK and JB to get great contracts.