Appreciate the compliments. Can't release my sources but here are my "methods"

1. "No vested interest." Unemotional review of all information gathered.
2. Put the puzzle together - no one source. Many publications, etc.
3. Listen to everybody but eliminate emotionally charged crap.
4. Narrow information down to what makes "good business" sense.
5. Don't "color" information with Pilot, union or management viewpoint.

Then it becomes a SWAG - Sophisticated Wild A** Guess. I have 10,000 Hrs, ATP and am a retired Business Management Professor who taught graduate level Aviation Safety and Air Carrier Management Courses. My wife and I have lived on a sailboat the last four years and watching the airline industry is a passion - not a vocation.

MY prediction - major crisis in airline industry with shortage of "qualified pilots." Companies who have staffed up early (this summer), have professional training programs, high standards and treat employees with respect (has nothing to do with pay) will survive. This fall many young pilots will jump ship from poorly managed companies and flock to the ones they percieve will survive. A number of Comuter airline companies will shut down because they cannot meet their schedule committments.

Compass pilots will be absorbed by NWA. Their aircraft could go to NWA or (my prediction) - Mesaba. SAAB fleet will gradually be decreased.

I am VERY concerned that some companies will lower their training standards and "pass people through" just to keep staffing up. Pencil whipped training programs and low experienced (I did not say low hours) pilots increase the probability of accidents.

Pay will increase. Forget the BS about going back to 'where we were" and think about survival individually and as a company. Collectively a pilot group is the "heart and soul" of an airline - especially a comuter airline. They are young, smart career motivated, and too often make posts that reflect "ranging hormones" rather then good sense.

Do you respect yourself, your fellow pilots and your company ? I didn't ask if you like them. If there is a collective mutual respect (individual, group, company) then the company will probably survive the impending crisis. It doesn't take much reading to tell those airlines where pilots have little self respect, fight each other, and wish their employer ill will.

I hope it all "shakes out" without any accidents.

Now that I have "ranted" (made up for few posts the last few months) I'm going to do something intellectually challenging - the laundry.