Originally Posted by
G550Guy
Highly unlikely... as Google and Apple are all but abandoning driverless cars. The risk of a 60,000lb truck going off an exit ramp because the GPS data base wasn't updated to the latest DOT construction project... and killing 20 kids in a school bus, just isn't worth it.
As opposed to the fatigued driver doing / having done exactly the same thing? I used the truck example as that was featured in a recent Air Cargo World article. No change in motivation from this side of the industry. Proving runs continue.
Originally Posted by
G550Guy
You bring up some valid points and concerns, but I would add that as market shares shrink, UPS and FDX will be the last to be affected severely. The first to go are the Kalitta's ABX Atlas type companies. And just like the airlines did, I would never rule out a merger of UPS with "insert whoever" if market shares/commerce and profits drove it.
Amazon volume aside, I think you'll find that we haul vastly different lift than the ACMI guys and have a completely different customer base and business model. So the comparison may be apples to oranges.
I couldn't come up with any merger possibilites either. UPS is so much more than an express delivery service: Logistics, supply chain solutions, ups store, etc., finding a merge partner without antitrust violations is unlikely. The air district is what, only 20K employees out of 400K+ worldwide? Acquisitions yes. Mergers, IMO, not a chance.
Originally Posted by
G550Guy
As for Prime Air, I have studied Amazon in depth for several years now. They are not immune to competition. If Walmart wanted to invest a Billion or two and truly market a .com shopping experience for their customers and include "free shipping"... Amazon stock would fall 10% overnight. This whole Prime Air experiment started because Amazon didn't want to pay us or FDX the rates we charged. Some brainchild accountant convinced their BOD they could start their own airline. Time will tell if it proves profitable for them.
Totally agree. But UPS did the same thing back in the 80's. And IF amazon is profitable and IF they want to expand (a very real possibility) that will not be good for FX/UPS.
The point I was trying to make was that there is a huge amount of uncertainty anywhere you go nowadays and if there has been one platitude that has proven legit it's the one boiler posted: "Past results are not indicative of future performance."