Originally Posted by
AnotherWriter
We lose about 20 a month to DL, plus 10 to others/retirement (that seems to be the trend, for every two we send to the mothership we lose one to something else).
We are probably averaging about 50 new hires a month, with a 15% washout is ~43 new pilots on line per month. So that's a net of about 13 new pilots a month. Which makes sense if you look at ISL 16-01 and 17-01, we are about 150 pilots larger.
We seem to like about 12 pilots per aircraft, but let's just assume 10 to make the math easier and be optimistic. We can take 1.3 airplanes per month, or about 15 per year. We have already made that commitment on the 200, so unless we start swapping out old 200s for 700s/E175s, I don't see how we take a lot of new jets this year beyond what is already planned. You could also make the argument that if we announced 175s with a west coast presence then our recruiting would increase dramatically.
Is the washout rate really 15% now? Also, I believe if we got any of the above airplanes they would be transfers. We got a lot of good pilots recently when AW was looking bleak, and I think that would be the case again if someone was losing airframes to Endeavor. However, I'm very skeptical about this type of rumor. Because it seems to pop up every year and nothing happens. In fact, every time this pops up GoJet seems to get a better deal. They're going to lose 700's. Nope, now they're getting 7 900's and all is well. But they suck in New York, lets give them a Detroit base. There are weird things going on right now like Endeavor MX doing Express Jet MX, and the fact that they're bringing Dual class aircraft to New York. And I've heard from management that there will be two less Delta Connection carriers next year. Wait and see, but don't hold your breath