My guess is that when all of the FO's and upgrade CA's are finished with training, we will be overstaffed. We probably have 25+ guys in upgrade class, and another 100+ new hires that have not completed IOE yet and hit the line. We are hiring about 50 a month, and upgrading 25 a month.

I agree that we are not currently overstaffed, but we could be in a months time if we do not grow. If we continue adding 50 a month and losing 30, we could (in theory) add 2 more airplanes a month. It is roughly 10 pilots per airplane. We know that hiring will start to fall off, and 50 per month will decline. We also all know that the attrition will increase past 30 a month. Only accepting 1 airplane a month is actually being responsible.

We do have more pilots on our seniority each month now than we had the previous month. On the December syssen list, we were at 1207. By April, we will be really close to 1300.