Fair enough. My point was that the really highly paid guys (the ultra senior) are not too likely to go. Some will, but many won't. Line check airmen are a different matter. Plenty of them are middle seniority.

Age is a factor, too. If a pilot is 30-40something, they have plenty of time to climb the list at a major. Once you get somewhere into the mid-upper 50's there really isn't enough time to get to the upper ($) ranks of the mainline. This isn't to say none will, some guys might want to go no matter what, just for the variety and experience, and the financial issues might be acceptable.

It's certainly not an exact science, I'm just guessing at it. Heck, plenty of pilots like to pass the time gaming out how quick they can move into the money seats. I guess it is kind of like the lottery, just more important, as it is a career.