Thread: Mesa TA Passes
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Old 07-15-2017 | 06:43 PM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by whyvee
With n = 3, a randomly chosen TA has a 1 in three chance of being the right one - 33%. If we skip the first, and find that second is better than the first, then the probability goes up to 50% - now it's TA #2 vs. TA #3. Skipping TA #2 in hopes of three being better only give you a 33% chance of #3 being the right choice. It's the Secretary Problem - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_problem

Also kind of like the Monty Hall problem - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg


This perhaps was true for Envoy, but Mesa does not have another Mesa to worry about, undercutting them, and taking their flying. Perhaps this was the only advantage to being at the bottom? Well it doesn't matter, you managed to even squander that advantage!!!
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