If you want an exact date right now, you might as well consult the psychic hotline, because you'll probably get a better answer than you will from anyone here. There are way too many factors to give you an accurate timeline. As the previous poster said, if everyone stayed, it would be 8 years. Same thing if the contractual min/max flowed every month (right now 25/month - number decreases after the Oct. 2011 hires, and decreases further down the line). The problem is, there are too many unforeseen factors, such as attrition levels, and how often AA cancels/postpones classes for whatever reason, as they did for September and October.

All the above being said, you really should heed the advice that's been repeated many times on this forum: the flow should be your plan B. Given the quick upgrade times that we have right now, getting enough PIC time to meet the minimums at a legacy carrier should take less than 4 years to achieve. Then, annoy the **** out of them enough until one of them picks you up. If you are one of the many (like myself) that get ignored by the legacies year after year, THEN use the flow to get to AA. If you do nothing but count on the flow to get you there, you're going to drive yourself to the point of insanity.