United has also slowed their hiring to nearly a halt the second half of this year, so that's not helping matters.

 

Sorry to state it so bluntly but how long would it then take a new hire say starting today or the beginning of next month to flow then? I'd do the math myself but I don't have access to seniority numbers and who flowed when

 

That's really hard to predict. If nobody left and everyone waited to flow, then a new hire would flow in 8 years. Attrition should pick up once the hiring at the legacies increase over the next few years. That would obviously bring that number down from 8 years. It's hard to guess what attrition will be like though.

 

If you want an exact date right now, you might as well consult the psychic hotline, because you'll probably get a better answer than you will from anyone here. There are way too many factors to give you an accurate timeline. As the previous poster said, if everyone stayed, it would be 8 years. Same thing if the contractual min/max flowed every month (right now 25/month - number decreases after the Oct. 2011 hires, and decreases further down the line). The problem is, there are too many unforeseen factors, such as attrition levels, and how often AA cancels/postpones classes for whatever reason, as they did for September and October.

All the above being said, you really should heed the advice that's been repeated many times on this forum: the flow should be your plan B. Given the quick upgrade times that we have right now, getting enough PIC time to meet the minimums at a legacy carrier should take less than 4 years to achieve. Then, annoy the **** out of them enough until one of them picks you up. If you are one of the many (like myself) that get ignored by the legacies year after year, THEN use the flow to get to AA. If you do nothing but count on the flow to get you there, you're going to drive yourself to the point of insanity.

 

Gotcha thanks, yea I was just thrown off guard by the 12 year statement and I totally feel the plan B flow deal as well.

 

Yes, the guys who are currently flowing have been here 12 years. That number will continue to drop for about the next 4-5 years. Around 2021ish at the current rate, the flow time will bottom out around the 5 year mark for those guys who hit the timing perfect and got hired early summer last year. It won't be long before the flow time starts to creep back up at that point.

 

Think of it this way: 12 years ago, we had a 12 year flow, we just didn't know it then. We will find out what today's flow is in 7-9 years, or whenever it happens.

 

When guy and gals in college ask about time to majors, I say if you have your hours to get hired by a regional shortly after you graduate college, you have a good likelihood of going to a major by about age 30.

Until just a few years ago a lot of folks age 50 were still waiting to get that call.

That is about as close as I am going to say.

A couple of years one way or the other, while we debate here, is a small difference compared to where the industry has been.