Originally Posted by
Chakerik
Understand your point, however the guy flying the crj makes less than the 320 guy because he works for a different company. That's the key. You work for someone else, you know that the day you get hired.
The rule not only increases the experience required, but acts as a barrier to entry. What's happened in the last few years? You go from making $20k at a regional first year to 70k. Regionals are having trouble filling classes. Regionals are being replaced by mainline. Everything you want to have happen is happening. Which is why it blows my mind that pilots want this to go away. It's only been beneficial to the profession. People are short sighted and see that it will take an extra year to get hired at a regional, then fail to see their compensation over a longer term is greatly increased.
Correlation does not equal causation, but as of late regionals have been pretty safe too since this rule.
Most states you need to be 16 to get your driver's license. Most states make you get a permit first at either 14/15. Hone your experience before being unleashed on the public. Are there some kids out there that could start driving at 16 alone and be just fine? Absolutely. Will some not improve at all after a year of driving with their parents? Absolutely. But for most, I'd venture to say that the more they drive, the more they get experience, the safer they will be when they are out driving alone. Obviously the kid in California is going to have a different experience then the kid driving in nowhere Nebraska. Quality of experience matters like many state. But when has more time to practice a skill before being unleashed upon the public hurt anyone?
It's s pretty simple concept.
All great, but we're conflating topics. You can keep the barriers to entry as they exist, it still doesn't account for the land grab FFD departures attained in the industry. The 1500 hours rule didn't create a shortage. The opportunity cost of being stuck making regional money for life in a career where 45% of domestic lift is paid under said de facto C-scale IS what did it. People are gonna look at that and run the numbers and say: "meh, too protracted of a compensation scale with too little assurance I'll make it to the A-scale for the same job performed (especially after 5 years) to make it worth my while". And then add to that no lateral income portability like what 99% of pedestrians in the work force do enjoy? And y'all are surprised? Jesus....
That's what's happening. I know it's the hobby du jour to cartoon millennials as want-it-now myopics, but this goes beyond the "pay your dues" fallacy. This is a monster of a gamble for someone who doesn't believe in principle that a poorly paid apprenticeship should last 10 years. Let's bark at the right tree here. Don't shoot the messenger either, the FFD hiring numbers speak for themselves.
I also don't agree with you that present circumstances (increase of regional pay via bonus, classes short of pilots) will create an environment where you will see a reversal of the domestic lift % flown by mainline to CY 2000 levels, let alone 1978 levels. I'd love for you to be correct on that account, I just don't see that out there. Which is to say, the optics will remain the same at the level where the "pilot shortage" canard is being exploited at its loudest.
The prior poster merely scratched at the topic and some mainline folks immediately blew their tops off. Think about that for a second. Unity is a party punchline during section 6 negotiations in the airline pilot demographic, nothing more. They know damn well what would happen if the industry returned to the days of 85%+ domestic lift being flown under mainline level contract, and they want no part of that. F to the U to the I got mine.
As a mil guy I have no dog in the fight. But when I was a civilian I did have one, and I chose to bypass the profession for exactly the points I've illustrated. I believe the calculus is similar to other bright folks with multiple career options, who could thrive as airline pilots if the incentives were there. Never mind the monster shadow inventory of ATPs who won't come out the shadows to fly FFDs at current market price. I digress. To each their own.