If your friend has been here for 2 years already then yes, he will likely have a 3 year (total) upgrade. However, for someone hired now, that mathematically will not occur unless we get a new aircraft order or much much higher attrition (possible! Lol)

At the end of 2017, the most junior CA upgrade will be at 56% of the list.

Just my guess but... at the end of this aircraft order, 2021, we should have around 2600 pilots, with current staffing model. That puts junior captain at seniority 1500 ish. We have already hired through seniority 1800 ish.