Rand Corp has a report from 2007 that says the USAF lost little by getting rid of the 20 year ACP bonus in 2005, but would Lose 15% of it's officers if it removed the ACP bonus of 5 years, keeping w/ the spirit of the email from Gen Brady above.

Don't expect to see ACP go away. It may go up, but probably not. I think AFPC's massaging of the numbers shows a healthy outcome for them, I didn't get the feel that the numbers fell short. If the USAF needs a 50% take rate- they got it on AFPC paper.

ACP take rates are only a part of the story. VSP, Regular Separations at end of ADSC and Palace Chase numbers are not readily integrated yet into numbers I've seen. I think they whipped up a little "perfect storm" in the last 2 years and haven't figured out how to explain it on paper yet.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR470/

http://wwa.afpc.randolph.af.mil/demographics/

Under "Retention Analysis" tab, follow the "FY 07 Pilot ACP Summary" Link