Originally Posted by
ColdWhiskey
Can'tStayAway has got it right. They have been promising explosive growth since 2015. It just hasn't happened yet. It keeps getting pushed back. Will it happen in 2019? Maybe, maybe not.
Yes, there are new deliveries. But an equal number of lease returns have been leaving. Each time that happens, the company pockets approximately $20 million (the difference between what the company buys the aircraft for and what it sells it to a leasing company for). It then leases the new aircraft with rates that have to reflect the higher price.
Franke and Biffle are promising big growth and fast upgrades at the same time they are dragging out a new contract absolutely as long as they can. Somehow the growth just keeps getting pushed back, and the contract never happens.
Come with your eyes wide open.
I've posted the actual delivery and lease return schedule on this site. I've explained how to find it, so you can see the numbers for your self. It's really not that difficult, just basic addition and subtraction.
The growth that the company has been talking about has happened. The airline grows in more ways than fleet numbers. When you replace a 319 with a 150 seats with a 321 with 230 seats, that's significant growth. When you operate 4 additional block hours per day per airplane, that's significant. Just not from your perspective.
The fleet only grows a small amount in 2018, about 6, due to a significant number of lease returns. In 2019 the lease returns go way down and the deliveries stay strong. 2019 is a big growth year. I'll go get the numbers again if I have to.